Amazon.fr :Commentaires en ligne: Fooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Markets (English Edition)

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Seemingly easy to read, don’t get fooled

Commenté en France le 9 juillet 2020

There is great value in reading NN Taleb, but it is not “face value”. If you expect insights which you can copy paste into your life to become a better person, better trader or whatever ... You will be disappointed.

Fooled by Randomness is an invitation to reason, to think beyond the appearances, it contains various anecdotes from the life of NN Taleb, as well as hitorical ones. These are meant to trigger thought on the concepts which are laid in the book, and make you ponder on how randomness affects your life and the ones surrounding you.

It is seemingly easy to read, but if you want to get the real value out of it you will need to pause, dig and take the extra mile of thought. NN Taleb points to the source, but it is up to you to take the additional steps to drink from it.

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OTTF

Fooled by emptiness

Commenté en France le 26 décembre 2009

Au final, ce livre sonne plutôt creux. Du pseudo philosophique, un peu de maths et quelques anecdotes plus tard, il n'y a pas grand chose à retenir de ce livre écrit dans un style peu lisible.

Autant relire "random walk".

Je tire cependant de ce livre un seul point édifiant - et très important : plus on cherche à observer souvent la performance d'un investissement, plus on risque de voir du bruit plutôt que la performance intrinsèque.

Rien que ce point mérite les 3 étoiles.

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OTTF

Fooled by emptiness

Commenté en France le 26 décembre 2009

4 personnes ont trouvé cela utile

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Marron

Lot of pages but not saying much

Commenté au Royaume-Uni le 20 janvier 2022

Achat vérifié

I was not keen on this book. The author is very skilful at repeating the same thing over and over on 300 pages... I suppose a one page summary would not have sold as much. The author is arrogant throughout the book which also distracts from his message.

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M. Hillmann

Disjointed but topical

Commenté au Royaume-Uni le 14 mars 2009

Achat vérifié

In 2007 I had read Taleb's The Black Swan. A black swan event is a highly improbable event which is unpredictable , has massive impact and after it has happened, our desire is to make it appear less random and more predictable than it was. Why are we unable to estimate risk? We simplify, narrate and categorise.
With the meltdown in the world financial system I felt drawn to reading Taleb's Fooled by Randomness written before the meltdown but in a way predicting it.
His main idea is that probability is not mere computation of the odds - it is the acceptance of the lack of certainty in our knowledge and developing methods for dealing with our ignorance. He attributes far more to luck than is generally credited and considers how we perceive luck. He focuses on how we attribute causes to outcomes - so just because two things happen so we believe that one causes the other. He accepts that skills count, but they count less in highly random environments than they do in dentistry. Nowhere is this more obvious than in the markets where we hear an entrepreneur has vision or a trader is talented. Taleb reckons their performance is often more down to chance rather than skill.
They then blindly follow a rising market or a booming trend without covering their downside in the event of a random unpredicted set of circumstances, so that they end up exposed to much greater loss than their accumulated gains. Proven by recent events??
Taleb prides himself on being an awkward iconoclast and spoils the book by his arrogance and sweeping and disdain of whole swathes of people. I dislike people who cannot respect their peers.
The book is disjointed and he introduces it as a personal essay primarily discussing the authors thoughts connected to the practice of risk taking. It is not compulsive reading but he does stimulate you to think.

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Dag Viljen Poleszynski

That many events are random, not due to skills

Commenté au Royaume-Uni le 23 août 2020

Achat vérifié

He should abstained from voicing opinions on subjects where he is not an expert.

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Gordibhoy

Not my cup of tea

Commenté au Royaume-Uni le 22 juillet 2018

Achat vérifié

I felt after a few pages that I'd seen all this sort of stuff before. Nothing breathtakingly revelatory, but I'd not dismiss it altogether. For me, not a page-turner.

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joachimDS

nice summer reading

Commenté au Royaume-Uni le 15 janvier 2014

Achat vérifié

Did read it during summer trip in the Alps. No major surprises in the book, no 'big message', a bit repetitive now and then. However, book is full of short anecdotes that make it easy to read it, put it away for a day, read some more etc.

The message in the book is probably not 'shocking' to someone with some background in the field, nor is it very scientific. Feels like Taleb tried to make a scientific book for the big mass, but failed at his attempt and got stock in between a little bit.

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David H. Thomas

Good subject material but a difficult read

Commenté au Royaume-Uni le 6 mars 2018

Achat vérifié

Very knowledgeable author but it's written in a far too technical vocabulary and it's difficult to follow

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KING_COCONUT

OK BOOK - more a self appreciation exercise for author

Commenté au Royaume-Uni le 1 avril 2015

Achat vérifié

Its OK. Describes more how clever Nassim is (IHHO!) compared to the rest of us plebs for not understading probability or watching TV.

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S Khan

Hard read but clearly some wisdom to be gained

Commenté au Royaume-Uni le 27 février 2019

Achat vérifié

Hard read but clearly some wisdom to be gained

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PMac

Good rainy day book

Commenté au Royaume-Uni le 1 avril 2016

Achat vérifié

Not a bad read, fairly interesting.

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