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  • Fooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the...
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Commentaires client

4,4 sur 5 étoiles
4,4 sur 5
2 748 évaluations
5 étoiles
65%
4 étoiles
21%
3 étoiles
8%
2 étoiles
3%
1 étoile
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Fooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Markets (English Edition)

Fooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Markets (English Edition)

parNassim Taleb
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Client d'Amazon
5,0 sur 5 étoilesSeemingly easy to read, don’t get fooled
Commenté en France le 9 juillet 2020
There is great value in reading NN Taleb, but it is not “face value”. If you expect insights which you can copy paste into your life to become a better person, better trader or whatever ... You will be disappointed.

Fooled by Randomness is an invitation to reason, to think beyond the appearances, it contains various anecdotes from the life of NN Taleb, as well as hitorical ones. These are meant to trigger thought on the concepts which are laid in the book, and make you ponder on how randomness affects your life and the ones surrounding you.

It is seemingly easy to read, but if you want to get the real value out of it you will need to pause, dig and take the extra mile of thought. NN Taleb points to the source, but it is up to you to take the additional steps to drink from it.
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OTTF
3,0 sur 5 étoilesFooled by emptiness
Commenté en France le 26 décembre 2009
Au final, ce livre sonne plutôt creux. Du pseudo philosophique, un peu de maths et quelques anecdotes plus tard, il n'y a pas grand chose à retenir de ce livre écrit dans un style peu lisible.

Autant relire "random walk".

Je tire cependant de ce livre un seul point édifiant - et très important : plus on cherche à observer souvent la performance d'un investissement, plus on risque de voir du bruit plutôt que la performance intrinsèque.

Rien que ce point mérite les 3 étoiles.
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Depuis France

C.J. van Leeuwen
1,0 sur 5 étoiles Fooled by this title
Commenté en France le 17 novembre 2011
At no point starts this book to be interesting.
The author rambles on without saying anything concrete.
After about 50 pages I gave up and threw the book away.
Waste of time and money!
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D’autres pays

Vaddadi Kartick
1,0 sur 5 étoiles 10% insight, 90% rambling.
Commenté en Inde le 5 mars 2019
Achat vérifié
Nassim is an intellectual with original ideas, but a bad communicator, so it's not worth your time to wade through the 90% rambling to get to the 10% insight. Which is ironic, because Nassim criticises people who appear on TV as being good at communication but wrong in what they're communicating. He's right, one the opposite is no good either, because there are thousands of other books we could be reading to learn things, and this book is a poor ROI. Nassim should have cut out 90% of the pages, and I'd then rate it 5 stars.

In another instance, Nassim criticises an interviewer for pointing out to an expert that his ideas if followed would have caused a loss. Nassim doesn't explain why this objection is invalid.

On the plus side, there are some interesting ideas here:
- We're good at understanding even bets, where there's a 50% chance in your favor, not skewed bets, where the chance is more on one side.
- A 20% chance of making 1 crore is not the same as a 10% chance of making 2 crores, though both have the same expected value of 20 lac. Expected value is not the only factor in analysing bets.
- The human mind is poor at understanding probabilistic thinking, because it's counter-intuitive.
- When Nassim was asked on one instance whether he thinks the market will go up or down, he said that it's likely to go up but he bet that it went down. Why? Because if it goes up, it goes up only a little, but if it goes down, it's expected to go down a lot, so the expected value is negative.
- The more often you check your portfolio, the more likely you'll find dips, which will make you feel bad. A negative event isn't counter-balanced by a positive event — it requires roughly two positive events to counter-balance it. So Nassim, aware of his own irrational mind, checks his portfolio rarely. And so should we.
- Randomness plays a big part in outcomes, and most people take credit for good luck but blame bad luck on things beyond their control. Plus there's so much ego involved.
- A family earning half a million dollars a year and staying in fashionable Park Avenue in New York, where they're the poorest in their apartment building, will be happier if they move to a middle-class area, where people will look up to, not down at, them.
- A person who repeatedly takes bets and is proven right for a decade can still be wrong, and gives us the example of a trader who was right for two decades, and then went bankrupt. If you bet that rare things won't happen, it may take a decade or two for luck to catch up with you.
- Everyone assumes rare things won't happen, while Nassim bets that they will. Nassim loses money every day for years, and finally earns a lot to make up for all the losses, though it's emotionally draining to see money go out every day. Nassim knows his worst-case scenario, while others don't.
- Wall St banks have bad incentives and will never behave properly. Bad behavior is ignored as long as it produces a profit.
- "Stochastic" means a process consisting of a sequence of random events. Not one event.
- Monte Carlo techniques are computer programs that simulate thousands of scenarios, all random, and give you a conclusion like: 20% of the time, you go bankrupt. 30% of the time, you make a million dollars. The rest of the time, you earn a modest return of 10-20% on your investment. This is a much better way of analysing things than a single number, like: what is the probability that this investment technique produces a 15% profit?
- Monte Carlo techniques are the only option when the equations to model things are too complex. Monte Carlo is brute force, and works.
- Survivorship bias means that the average fund manager has a high return because the rest are out of business. If you count them, the average return is low.
- Nassim is an intellectual and prefers thinking to working.
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Joris
1,0 sur 5 étoiles Waste of time
Commenté au Royaume-Uni le 23 août 2018
Achat vérifié
This book has very little of interest to offer. Moreover, it's very irritating that the author incessantly keeps on advocating his personal opinions, some of which are very quaint to say the least (science/mathematics are bad whole philosophy is good, he knows how stock markets work while everyone else is ignorant or misinformed - by formal education, no less, etc, etc,)

Avoid this empty piece of fluff and go read "thinking fast and slow".
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Kindle Customer
1,0 sur 5 étoiles Idiosyncratic
Commenté au Royaume-Uni le 28 décembre 2020
Achat vérifié
Potentially interesting but I gave up after a couple of chapters.
The author makes a point in the intro that he ignored his editor's advice, that his personality needed to show. But if his editor was any good, following his advice would have lead to a book with personality but not the irritatingness it possesses.
May be worth a try if it pops up for 99p again; I really don't recommend it otherwise.
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Kleshtrem
1,0 sur 5 étoiles Pompous Garbage
Commenté au Royaume-Uni le 6 novembre 2019
Achat vérifié
So many words have been written yet it could have been just boiled down to a simple blog-post about how luck is a thing and not everything can be anticipated or calculated.
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DANIEL
1,0 sur 5 étoiles Not new. Mis sold.
Commenté au Royaume-Uni le 23 juillet 2021
Achat vérifié
I have not read the book. However, it is very annoying to find the books pages have all been individually folded and the side of the back page is scuffed.

This was advertised as new. It is not new. To the guy that sold this as new, it’s not my index finger I’m pointing with.
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Em
1,0 sur 5 étoiles Monologue with no references
Commenté au Royaume-Uni le 30 juin 2021
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This is essentially a monologue with no references. Quite long-winded and probably could have been reduced to 100 pages. All in all I wouldn't recommend.
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Michael Mitchell
1,0 sur 5 étoiles Fooled by Ratings
Commenté au Canada le 24 janvier 2022
Achat vérifié
Don't be fooled by the ratings like I was. I've read countless books on trading, and even the bad ones had some kind of value to offer. I have gained ZERO value from this book. Not only did I find it worthless, the author's ego, which I personally found intolerable, made the book hard for me to read. I couldn’t finish the book. I stopped less than halfway through it.

As an example of this, on P. 104, the author mentions Jim Rogers, who used to be George Soros partner and a legendary trader in his own right (Jim Rogers is profiled in Jack Schwager's "Market Wizards" book), and claims that even Jim Rogers doesn’t know some of the things he is teaching in this book.

To be specific, in that chapter, the author was teaching the difference between probability and expectancy when he made the following statement: “Mr. Jim Rogers seems to have gone very far in life for someone who does not distinguish between probability and expectancy.” (Not only did that sound like an unreasonable claim to me, but it also sounded condescending towards Jim Rogers.)

Any competent trader knows the difference between the two, especially somebody of Roger’s caliber. An example of this probability/expectancy concept is when we say a trader can still be profitable even if only 40% of his trades were successful. Here, we have a bad probability (less than 50%), but we still have a good expectancy (trader was profitable). Obviously, this is achieved by cutting losses short and letting winners run.

Having a big ego is one thing. However, Taleb believing that Rogers does not know the difference between probability and expectancy makes me question Taleb's judgment and his credibility.

NOTE: This review, including the title, is based on and reflects my own personal opinion.
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NinjaReader
1,0 sur 5 étoiles Big bore - go straight to "antifragile"
Commenté au Brésil le 28 août 2017
Achat vérifié
The book begins well but get lost in circular thinking. It is not productive: keep hammering on the issue of randomness but poorly addresses solutions. The author writes a lot about "casual" moments that happen to be more boring and burdensome for the reader than instructive. However I appreciated the commentary on stoicism and the difference between noise and information. I'd recommend a quick reading. I 'd rather devote more time to "antifragile" which happens to be written by the author in a more mature phase and is his masterpiece. I did not like this one at all, but I am going to read "antifragile" again.
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Luca Carraro
1,0 sur 5 étoiles Potenzialmente interessante ma sprecato
Commenté en Italie le 18 août 2021
Achat vérifié
L’idea presentata dall’autore è molto buona, ma la presentazione è disorganizzata (più raccolta scollegata di aneddoti che altro), la lettura è quasi sempre non fluida, con collegamenti avanti e indietro nel libro.
La scrittura risulta forzata e a tratti anche leggermente arrogante, a contrasto rispetto a quel che scrive l’autore stesso su altri personaggi citati nel libro. Solo gli ultimi 2 capitoli sono interessanti da leggere.
A tratti sembra più una bozza che un libro pronto da pubblicare, si potrebbe sfoltire parecchio.
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