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The Sunday Times bestseller
‘A monumental, gripping book … Outstanding’ Sunday Times
Wherever there is human judgement, there is noise.
‘Noise may be the most important book I've read in more than a decade. A genuinely new idea so exceedingly important you will immediately put it into practice. A masterpiece’
Angela Duckworth, author of Grit
‘An absolutely brilliant investigation of a massive societal problem that has been hiding in plain sight’
Steven Levitt, co-author of Freakonomics
From the world-leaders in strategic thinking and the multi-million copy bestselling authors of Thinking Fast and Slow and Nudge, the next big book to change the way you think.
Imagine that two doctors in the same city give different diagnoses to identical patients – or that two judges in the same court give different sentences to people who have committed matching crimes. Now imagine that the same doctor and the same judge make different decisions depending on whether it is morning or afternoon, or Monday rather than Wednesday, or they haven’t yet had lunch. These are examples of noise: variability in judgements that should be identical.
In Noise, Daniel Kahneman, Olivier Sibony and Cass R. Sunstein show how noise produces errors in many fields, including in medicine, law, public health, economic forecasting, forensic science, child protection, creative strategy, performance review and hiring. And although noise can be found wherever people are making judgements and decisions, individuals and organizations alike commonly ignore its impact, at great cost.
Packed with new ideas, and drawing on the same kind of sharp analysis and breadth of case study that made Thinking, Fast and Slow and Nudge international bestsellers, Noise explains how and why humans are so susceptible to noise and bias in decision-making. We all make bad judgements more than we think. With a few simple remedies, this groundbreaking book explores what we can do to make better ones.
* More than 2 million copies sold
* New York Times bestseller
Since the original publication of Nudge more than a decade ago, the title has entered the vocabulary of businesspeople, policy makers, engaged citizens, and consumers everywhere. The book has given rise to more than 400 “nudge units” in governments around the world and countless groups of behavioral scientists in every part of the economy. It has taught us how to use thoughtful “choice architecture”—a concept the authors invented—to help us make better decisions for ourselves, our families, and our society.
Now, the authors have rewritten the book from cover to cover, making use of their experiences in and out of government over the past dozen years as well as an explosion of new research in numerous academic disciplines. To commit themselves to never undertaking this daunting task again, they are calling this the “final edition.” It offers a wealth of new insights, for both its avowed fans and newcomers to the field, about a wide variety of issues that we face in our daily lives—COVID-19, health, personal finance, retirement savings, credit card debt, home mortgages, medical care, organ donation, climate change, and “sludge” (paperwork and other nuisances we don’t want, and that keep us from getting what we do want)—all while honoring one of the cardinal rules of nudging: make it fun!
We've all had to fight our way through administrative sludge--filling out complicated online forms, mailing in paperwork, standing in line at the motor vehicle registry. This kind of red tape is a nuisance, but, as Cass Sunstein shows in Sludge, it can also also impair health, reduce growth, entrench poverty, and exacerbate inequality. Confronted by sludge, people just give up--and lose a promised outcome: a visa, a job, a permit, an educational opportunity, necessary medical help. In this lively and entertaining look at the terribleness of sludge, Sunstein explains what we can do to reduce it.
Because of sludge, Sunstein, explains, too many people don't receive benefits to which they are entitled. Sludge even prevents many people from exercising their constitutional rights--when, for example, barriers to voting in an election are too high. (A Sludge Reduction Act would be a Voting Rights Act.) Sunstein takes readers on a tour of the not-so-wonderful world of sludge, describes justifications for certain kinds of sludge, and proposes "Sludge Audits" as a way to measure the effects of sludge. On balance, Sunstein argues, sludge infringes on human dignity, making people feel that their time and even their lives don't matter. We must do better.
NO.1 INTERNATIONAL BESTSELLER
From Cass R. Sunstein and Richard H. Thaler, winner of the Nobel Prize in Economics, Nudge is one of the most influential books of the 21st century
*Fully revised and updated from cover to cover*
Since the original publication of Nudge more than a decade ago, the word has entered the vocabulary of businesspeople, policy makers, engaged citizens and consumers everywhere. The book has given rise to hundreds of "nudge units" in governments around the world and countless groups of behavioural scientists in every part of the economy. It has taught us how to use thoughtful choice architecture to help us make better decisions for ourselves, our families, and our society.
Now, Richard Thaler and Cass Sunstein have updated the book, making use of their experiences in and out of government over the past dozen years as well as an explosion of new research. This final edition offers a wealth of new insights, for both its avowed fans and newcomers, about a wide range of issues that we face in our daily lives -- health, personal finance, climate change, and "sludge" (paperwork and other nuisances we don't want, and that keep us from getting what we do want) -- all while honouring one of the cardinal rules of nudging: make it fun!
Heroes are willing to invoke the Constitution to invalidate state laws, federal legislation, and prior Court decisions. They loudly embrace first principles and are prone to flair, employing dramatic language to fundamentally reshape the law. Soldiers, on the other hand, are skeptical of judicial power, and typically defer to decisions made by the political branches. Minimalists favor small steps and only incremental change. They worry that bold reversals of long-established traditions may be counterproductive, producing a backlash that only leads to another reversal. Mutes would rather say nothing at all about the big constitutional issues, and instead tend to decide cases on narrow grounds or keep controversial cases out of the Court altogether by denying standing.
As Sunstein shows, many of the most important constitutional debates are in fact contests between the four Personae. Whether the issue involves slavery, gender equality, same-sex marriage, executive power, surveillance, or freedom of speech, debates have turned on choices made among the four Personae--choices that derive as much from psychology as constitutional theory. Sunstein himself defends a form of minimalism, arguing that it is the best approach in a self-governing society of free people. More broadly, he casts a genuinely novel light on longstanding disputes over the proper way to interpret the constitution, demonstrating that behind virtually every decision and beneath all of the abstract theory lurk the four Personae. By emphasizing the centrality of character types, Sunstein forces us to rethink everything we know about how the Supreme Court works.
As OIRA Administrator, Sunstein helped oversee regulation in a broad variety of areas, including highway safety, health care, homeland security, immigration, energy, environmental protection, and education. This background allows him to describe OIRA and how it works—and how it can work better—from an on-the-ground perspective. Using real-world examples, many of them drawn from today’s headlines, Sunstein makes a compelling case for improving cost-benefit analysis, a longtime cornerstone of regulatory decision-making, and for taking account of variables that are hard to quantify, such as dignity and personal privacy. He also shows how regulatory decisions about health, safety, and life itself can benefit from taking into account behavioral and psychological research, including new findings about what scares us, and what does not. By better accounting for people’s fallibility, Sunstein argues, we can create regulation that is simultaneously more human and more likely to achieve its goals.
In this highly readable synthesis of insights from law, policy, economics, and psychology, Sunstein breaks down the intricacies of the regulatory system and offers a new way of thinking about regulation that incorporates human dignity– and an insistent focus on the consequences of our choices.
Warum treffen wir, je nach Umständen, völlig unterschiedliche Entscheidungen auf ein und derselben Faktengrundlage?
Wieso kommen zwei Experten, die über identische Informationen verfügen, zu komplett anderen Schlussfolgerungen?
Weshalb entscheiden wir uns immer wieder falsch, ob im Beruf oder im Privatleben?
In seinem neuen Buch, das in Zusammenarbeit mit Bestsellerautor Cass Sunstein und Olivier Sibony entstanden ist, klärt Nobelpreisträger Daniel Kahneman über die Vielzahl von oft zufälligen Faktoren auf, die unsere Entscheidungsfindung stören und häufig negativ beeinflussen – sie sind im Begriff »Noise« zusammengefasst. Wir müssen lernen, diese »Störgeräusche« zu verstehen und mit ihnen umzugehen, nur dann können wir auf Dauer bessere Entscheidungen treffen.
Dieses Buch ist ein Meilenstein zum Verständnis der Grundlagen unseres Handelns und gehört schon jetzt mit seinem zeitlosen Klassiker »Schnelles Denken, langsames Denken« zur Pflichtlektüre für Entscheidungsträger.
»Ein Meisterwerk und ein Meilenstein der Psychologie.« ― Philip Tetlock
»Das wichtigste Buch des letzten Jahrzehnts.« ― Angela Duckworth
»Die Welt ist so gründlich erforscht, dass Wissenschaftler unmöglich ein bisher unbekanntes Säugetier von der Größe eines Elefanten entdecken können.
Dasselbe könnte auch für die Welt der Entscheidungsfindung gelten – und doch haben Kahneman, Sibony und Sunstein ein neues Problem entdeckt, dass so groß ist wie ein Elefant: NOISE.« ― Jonathan Haidt
»NOISE ist die konsequente Fortführung jahrzehntelanger Forschungsarbeit im Bereich der Entscheidungsfindung und Verhaltensökonomie. Eindrucksvoll legen die Autoren dar, dass es mit dem „Bauchgefühl“ des Menschen auch nicht weit her ist, schon gar nicht, wenn der Magen knurrt.« ― NZZ am Sonntag
»Kahneman zeigt praktikable Strategien auf, unerwünschte Einflüsse zu reduzieren. Dieses Buch sei nicht nur Entscheidern empfohlen. Es ist ein Wachrüttler – und birgt große Chancen.« ― P.M.
»Unternehmen und andere Organisationen sollten unbedingt auf die Entscheidungshygiene achten, denn schließlich könnte eine Volkswirtschaft durch weniger „Noise“ im System Fehlinvestitionen verhindern.« ― wirtschaft + weiterbildung
Against those who reject paternalism of any kind, Sunstein shows that “choice architecture”—government-imposed structures that affect our choices—is inevitable, and hence that a form of paternalism cannot be avoided. He urges that there are profoundly moral reasons to ensure that choice architecture is helpful rather than harmful—and that it makes people’s lives better and longer.
NEW YORK TIMES BESTSELLER
#1 Washington Post Bestseller
There’s Santa Claus, Shakespeare, Mickey Mouse, the Bible, and then there’s Star Wars. Nothing quite compares to sitting down with a young child and hearing the sound of John Williams’s score as those beloved golden letters fill the screen. In this fun, erudite, and often moving book, Cass R. Sunstein explores the lessons of Star Wars as they relate to childhood, fathers, the Dark Side, rebellion, and redemption. As it turns out, Star Wars also has a lot to teach us about constitutional law, economics, and political uprisings.
In rich detail, Sunstein tells the story of the films’ wildly unanticipated success and explores why some things succeed while others fail. Ultimately, Sunstein argues, Star Wars is about freedom of choice and our never-ending ability to make the right decision when the chips are down. Written with buoyant prose and considerable heart, The World According to Star Wars shines a bright new light on the most beloved story of our time.
Best-selling author Cass R. Sunstein examines how to avoid worst-case scenarios
The world is increasingly confronted with new challenges related to climate change, globalization, disease, and technology. Governments are faced with having to decide how much risk is worth taking, how much destruction and death can be tolerated, and how much money should be invested in the hopes of avoiding catastrophe. Lacking full information, should decision-makers focus on avoiding the most catastrophic outcomes? When should extreme measures be taken to prevent as much destruction as possible?
Averting Catastrophe explores how governments ought to make decisions in times of imminent disaster. Cass R. Sunstein argues that using the “maximin rule,” which calls for choosing the approach that eliminates the worst of the worst-case scenarios, may be necessary when public officials lack important information, and when the worst-case scenario is too disastrous to contemplate. He underscores this argument by emphasizing the reality of “Knightian uncertainty,” found in circumstances in which it is not possible to assign probabilities to various outcomes. Sunstein brings foundational issues in decision theory in close contact with real problems in regulation, law, and daily life, and considers other potential future risks. At once an approachable introduction to decision-theory and a provocative argument for how governments ought to handle risk, Averting Catastrophe offers a definitive path forward in a world rife with uncertainty.